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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."